Kaowao Newsgroup
Taing Taw
March 19, 2024
Mon State will be the next battleground
Mon State, after almost 30 years of ceasefire, is now becoming a main battleground and local administrators are under the pressure from the Mon armed group for not cooperating with the country’s coup military government. Forcing young people to be involved in the regime, the military training is viewed by the armed group as against their policy. According to the statement released today, local tract leaders could be arrested if they do not comply.
Local administrators of the military regime council, who are inside the control area of the Mon armed group, have no option but to stay neutral. Staying neutral would force village administrators to flee the area for safety. The failure to comply with the warning from the Mon armed group AD (Anti-military Dictatorship) could result in a risky life, possibly leading to death.
During the 30 year period of ceasefire, the village headmen focused on more developments and enjoyed peace until last month when the Mon armed group declared war against the military council. The broken ceasefire between the country’s military regime and the Mon armed group would change the armed group’s stance, the group later co-opted with NUG (National Unity Government), who was toppled by the country’s military in 2021.
Since then, the local people fear reprisal of the regime that could cause an airstrike that targets civilian crowds, which has been experienced in other parts of the country. A married Mon women, in the border of the Karen State and Mon state, said she “fears of the country regime’s airstrikes will target civilian crowd, including her home.” It is said for her, it does not matter who would rule the country or what the system will introduce, as long as she is safe.
After the coup of 2021, the Mon armed group who wanted to maintain a ceasefire for the benefit of the people has been heavily criticized by the democratic opposition groups and finally it finds a way to abandon the NCA (Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement) pact. The Mon armed group is now aligned with the countrywide multi-national armed revolt groups who have dreams of a future federal democratic system.
The Mon armed group statement said that the local village headmen could get in trouble at any given moment if they recruited young people for the military regime. The two sides of the sword options are not only riskily posed to the local administrators but given the fact that the local track militia group members are becoming easy targets for the Mon armed group.
According to the armed group sources, the near future of the Mon State can become a full blown civil war like its border of Karen State and Tanesserim or Taninthayi Division dwelling south and north. The Mon AD- Anti Dictatorship group and its multiple allies hope to accelerate their offensive activity in the southern part of the State and border of Thailand. Another reliable source from the Thailand border also said Mon immigrants working in Thailand support the AD and its allies groups active in Mon State. However the civil groups inside Monland worry about the cruelness of the random regime airstrikes that had happened in other parts of the country.
Overseas educated Mon youth generations involved in the current armed revolution shows that they can inspire more young G-Z to take up arms and fight against the military regime that has totally plunged the country into turmoil since de’ coup in 2021.
The democratic government toppled in 2021 cannot rule the country until it can push back the military unit to the military barrack- the military junta the government cannot put under control had already been a lot experienced in the long history of Burma of brutality. To keep governing the country, NUG must defeat the military regime and reform the military unit, a sole exit path for the exile group to come back.
The Mon armed group break- away from NMSP (New Mon State Party) and formed as New Mon State Party-AD (Anti-military Dictatorship) quickly set up relations with NUG. The break-away group said that about two years of the neutral stance of its former party of NMSP’s decisions cannot benefit the people and the country for long term. Most young generations criticize the NMSP of conservative stances toward the regime and they form small armed groups and build up good relationships with NUG and other groups like KNU and KIA. They are welcomed by the AD group and expressed to work together, and right now in a short time, can see combined activities.
After learning of the multiple allies group activities recently, the civil groups in Mon community start preparing their relief campaign to help war- affected communities, the monk temple hope to become center and the monks themselves acting as front line relief campaigners. Even though the misery could be brought to them because of fighting, the community leaders don’t try to calm down the situation but support the armed groups who have dreams of the change for the long term.
The community leaders, based on their experiences, worry of being arrested without reasons as seen most in the war-torn countries. “I don’t want to be arrested and sent to jail,” said a former political prisoner in Mon State. “I keep doing my community activities with big eyes open.”
Mon State, since the Feb 2021 military coup, has dried out young generations. Some of them have resettled to the US with or without family through Thailand, Malaysia and Burma. One engineering student said she came to the US with a tourist visa. Another student told me he comes with a student visa; both are welcomed for temporary stay.
People in Mon State who have family members and relatives in the NMSP-AD worry of being arrested and detained by the military government accused as a case of skepticism or opposition groups sympathizers. They can be arrested then released on bail and bribed later. About a month ago, two women who have brothers in the Mon armed group were arrested and then released later.
The country’s regime leaders who must rely on China and Russia for diplomatic support on the world stage face a big loss of territory to ethnic armed groups in the northern part, its top military leaders got killed and bases lost during the fighting.
Most of the northern parts of the country fell into the control of ethnic armed groups who allied with PDF/ NUG. Most of Araken State territory parts fell into the hand of AA. Some ethnic armed groups such as NMSP who stayed neutral without taking side face mounting pressure from G-Z who are daring to challenge them. Some Mon youth who oppose the NMSP’s neutral stance choose to ally with northern groups for military training and get involved in the fighting as mercenaries.
The country of Burma under the junta rule has drastically plunged into poverty and people find it hard to survive after the coup. Additionally, young people face another big challenge with the newly military conscription policy. Thousands of them flee to the countryside where opposition armed groups operate, some choose to join with the groups, and some try to find jobs in neighboring Thailand and Malaysia.
Who can give predictions to the fate of the future of the country? Imagining for near future peace time is unrealistic, while most of the armed group leaders have repeatedly said, “until only we can bring the junta down.” No win-win approach can be applied and no negotiation process can be proceeding this time in this country. The neighboring country of China, India and Thailand, according to the chief editor of Irrawaddy Aung Zaw, don’t actually help for the fate of the country, never change the stance of supporting the military junta who lost most of parts of the country territory to the ethnic armed groups and NUG/PDF- the military allies that are operating on multi-front fighting.
“The military junta must confess that they lost the battle against AA- Araken Army ” in Araken State, According to Araken news agency- Niranjara reported recently quoting AA chairman Tun Myat Naing. AA can now control almost all part of Araken State, but not stopping there and helping its military allies such as KIA- Kachin Independent Army and others. The joint groups in the northern part can successfully take control on the battlefield and hundreds of the junta soldiers including senior commanders surrendered to the allies groups.
The people’s support is an important part in defeating the enemy, said Aung Zaw. “The people have to use their own vehicles and track or follow the junta combat movement in the front line and report to their armed groups (the allies)- the junta force lost in every fight.”
The junior ranking members whose family cannot survive financially have a moral weakness and don’t want to fight but defect and surrender or run away including crossing the border into Bangladesh. Their family members, like ordinary people, cannot find jobs to survive and some of their family members got killed in the countrywide uprising during the coup.
The people’s movement and uprising, according to the history of Burma, is the most powerful in defeating the military governments including Gen Ne Win. So the history itself is repeating like a wheel turning and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing will be the next. Even though the 1988 uprising movement didn’t have enough support from inside the Junta force and cooperation, this time is totally different.
“The military council is the loser, the allies are the winners, you can see the current situation,” Aung Zaw said. The NMSP-AD and its allies see the current situation to focus on offensive operation manners, using a new type of weapons like man-pad, the one that can change the situation of the battlefield. Random airstrikes from the junta force cannot change their operation, but only results in the casualty of people. As the junta force has used the tactic of more defensive than offensive, the Mon and its allies see an opportunity to try to be more offensive.
The Mon opposition media groups reported that the military junta force in Mon State is very weak after the 2021 coup, and most of its combat force got killed in battle against northern allies. The junta side, like before, has never reported that they are ready to fight against NMSP-AD and allies- the arrogant voice of its past now belongs to the past.
This week military activity reports in Mon and Karen State see that the all armed groups in the southern area are coming together as allies and fighting, hope they will accelerate soon before the end of this month. The Mon-AD said all its combat soldiers along with its allies are in the front line throughout Mon territory- the moment of civil war is inevitable and all connections hope to lose soon as part of “four cuts” tactic of the regime land clearing policy.
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